Football: Predicting the Winning Percentage for each Game

NCAA Football: Georgia at Kentucky

(picture via Mark Zerof- USA TODAY Sports)

Week 1: at Southern Miss- 80%

Playing on the road is never an easy task no matter where you play, playing on the road in the season opener is even tougher. If this game was at home, I’d have this game in the 90-95% range but playing on the road is a whole new animal. However, in this game I value Kentucky’s overall talent and depth over the home field advantage which lead me to the 80% mark.

Week 2: vs Eastern Kentucky- 98%

This isn’t the same team that came into Commonwealth Stadium (now known as Kroger Field) two years ago and nearly beat the cats in OT. Kentucky’s recent success in home openers (besides last year) should go well for cats to. This game shouldn’t be too much of an issue and should be over by halftime.

Week 3: at South Carolina- 53%

This game will be an early indicator for how the season will go. I give Kentucky the slight edge right now based on formed SEC football players and how the last three seasons have gone. In one of the most intriguing games early on in the season, this game should decide who the true SEC east dark horse will be.

Week 4: vs Florida- 41%

Will the streak end? It very well may but in giving my honest winning percentage opinion, I would have to give Florida right now. If the Gators can find a formidable QB to lead the offense, they could very well be a dark horse playoff contender. If the game was in “The Swamp”, I would put the percentage in the 33-37% range meaning once again home field advantage is taking into account. This game should be one of the most exciting games to watch this season and hopefully it ends in a streak breaking win for Kentucky.

Week 5: vs Eastern Michigan- 99.9%

Depth, talent, coaching staff, and strength of conference. Moving on.

Week 6: vs Missouri- 67%

Kentucky has had recent success in the series and this year should be no different. You have to give Mizzou a good chance just because of that deadly offense. Kentucky’s secondary and great linebacker corps should be able to at least slow down the offense enough to win. Last year the defense did a great job against the offense and if they can do it again that would help tremendously. Our offense should have a field day against the Mizzou defense and home field advantage will come into play once again.

Week 8 ( week 7 is bye): at Mississippi State- 47%

This game is a tough one to predict. I would say Kentucky has a bit more talent than Hail State but going off last year’s game and the fact that Mississippi State is the home team with those annoying cowbells, I would give the slight edge in win percentage to Mississippi State.

Week 9: vs Tennessee- 55%

The Josh Dobbs era is over in Rocky Top and I couldn’t be happier. Dobbs scorched UK’s defense in his years with the Vols and his graduation may mean Kentucky can overcome Tennessee and win the game. I give Kentucky the slight edge based on proven players and having the game in Lexington. But of course we do have to take into consideration that it is a Tennessee vs. Kentucky football game which means you have to give the Vols some respect. At the end of the however, I still give Kentucky the edge!

Week 10: vs Ole Miss- 57%

Like the Mississippi State game, this one is tough to put a number on. I believe Ole Miss is the more talented team and any other year I would probably give them the slight edge however, this year is different. With their bowl ban and pending investigation by the NCAA, I believe  Ole Miss will have nothing else to fight for and lose to the cats at Kroger Field.

Week 11: at Vanderbilt- 61%

Vanderbilt is building something very nice but Kentucky is a year ahead of them in rebuilding which I believe the talent and experience will be too much for Vandy. Also, Vanderbilt isn’t the most intimidating place to play and I wouldn’t be shocked if there was just as much or more blue and white in the crowd than black and white. But playing on a different always has a little impact which brings my win percentage to 61%.

Week 12: at Georgia- 21%

In what I believe is the most difficult game of the season, I give this game the lowest amount of winning percentage out of the 12. Georgia is considered the most talented team in the east and playing between the hedges is no easy task. Jacob Eason showed last season that he is 1st rounder potential and has a cannon for an arm. Also, the defense should improve from last year and they may have the best linebackers in the east although Kentucky’s may be the best. This game will test the toughness of this team and the young guys and it should be interesting to watch how they respond.

Week 13: vs Louisville- 43%

A lot of factors go into this game, the most notable being the result of last year’s game. Lamar Jackson should be in the Heisman race once again after almost fumbling it away last year against the cats. While I don’t think last year was a fluke, I believe Louisville will be very motivated heading into this game and that along with talent and of course, Lamar Jackson makes me give the slight edge to Louisville. I believe Kentucky wins this game but when putting percentage on it, I will give the edge to Louisville.

Don’t forget to follow @ukfansallday on twitter! You can also my my twitter handle which is @BradenNeviusBBN

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